Blackjack by the Numbers: Strategy Chart, and Hit or Stand on 12 or 13

CASINO PASSPORT editorial teamPublished: October 22, 2026

This image is an illustration, not a photo of an actual facility.

We calculated the expected value in blackjack and summarized a strategy chart by dealer card (hit, stand, double, split, surrender), the win and loss rates of hitting and standing on tricky totals such as 12 or 13, and the dealer's bust rate.

Blackjack is a game where you decide for yourself whether to hit or stand. In this article, the CASINO PASSPORT editorial team calculated the expected value (how much you gain or lose on average per hand) and summarized, in numbers, a strategy chart for each situation and "whether hitting or standing is better on 12 or 13." The rules themselves are explained in Blackjack rules and how to play.

This article is not a way to win. Even if you play by the strategy chart, on average you lose about 0.5% of the amount you bet. The chart only shows "the choice that loses less in the same situation." Decide before your trip how much you will spend at the casino, and enjoy yourself within that limit.

The short answer

If you play by the strategy chart, the house edge (the percentage of your bet you lose on average) is about 0.5%
With a total of 12, hit if the dealer's visible card is a 2 or 3, and stand if it is 4 to 6. With a total of 13 to 16, stand against 2 to 6, and hit against 7 or higher
With 12 vs 2, standing wins slightly more often (35.4% vs 34.8%), but hitting loses less often (60.2% vs 64.6%), so on average hitting is better
With 16 vs 10, hitting and standing have almost the same expected value (both lose about 54% of the bet). If surrender is allowed, you lose only half (50%), so surrendering is better
Insurance is a bet that loses about 7.5% of the amount bet on average

Assumptions used in the calculation

We calculated based on the rules in Paradise Casino's official game guide (confirmed in October 2026).

Assumptions used in the calculation (rules from Paradise Casino's official game guide)

Item	Assumption in this article
Dealer	Draws on 16 or less and stands on 17 or more (also stands on a 17 that counts an A as 11)
Blackjack payout	1.5 times the bet (3:2)
Dealer blackjack	Checked first when the face-up card is an A or a 10
Double down	Allowed on the first two cards, and also after splitting
Split	Once only. Split Aces receive one card each
Surrender	Give up half of your bet and fold
Number of decks	Not stated on the official website, so we used an approximation that treats the deck as never running out of cards

We have not been able to confirm the blackjack rules of other casinos, such as Seven Luck Casino, on their official websites. If rules differ, such as whether the dealer stands on 17 or the blackjack payout, the strategy chart and the numbers also change, so check the information at the table before you sit down.

Strategy chart (by the dealer's visible card)

Where your hand (left column) meets the dealer's face-up card (top row), you find the action with the highest expected value. The chart is split into three tables: hard hands (hands without an A, or hands that count the A as 1), soft hands (hands that count an A as 11) and pairs (the first two cards have the same rank).

Hard hands (hands without an A)

Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
8 or less	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
9	H	D	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
10	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H	H
11	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H
12	H	H	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
13	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
14	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	H	H
15	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	H	R	H
16	S	S	S	S	S	H	H	R	R	R
17 or more	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S

HHit
SStand
DDouble down
PSplit
RSurrender

D: hit if you cannot double down. R: hit if you cannot surrender.

Soft hands (hands that count an A as 11; total in parentheses)

Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
A+2 (13)	H	H	H	H	D	H	H	H	H	H
A+3 (14)	H	H	H	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A+4 (15)	H	H	H	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A+5 (16)	H	H	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A+6 (17)	H	D	D	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A+7 (18)	S	D	D	D	D	S	S	H	H	H
A+8 (19)	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
A+9 (20)	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S

HHit
SStand
DDouble down
PSplit
RSurrender

D: hit if you cannot double down. However, with A+7 (18), stand if you cannot double down. Always stand on A+8 and A+9.

Pairs (the first two cards have the same rank)

Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
2-2	P	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
3-3	P	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
4-4	H	H	H	P	P	H	H	H	H	H
5-5	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	H	H
6-6	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H	H
7-7	P	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
8-8	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P
9-9	P	P	P	P	P	S	P	P	S	S
10-10	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S
A-A	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P

HHit
SStand
DDouble down
PSplit
RSurrender

Do not split 5-5; treat it as a total of 10. Do not split 10-10 (including J, Q and K).

Tricky hands such as 12 or 13: what happens when you hit and when you stand

These are the win, push and loss rates and the expected value (per 100 units bet) when, after hitting, you keep choosing the option with the higher expected value. The values assume the dealer does not have a blackjack.

Comparison of tricky situations (expected value per 100 units bet)

Situation	Stand (win / lose)	Stand expected value	Hit (win / push / lose)	Hit expected value	Better choice
12 vs 2	35.4% / 64.6%	−29.3	34.8% / 5.0% / 60.2%	−25.3	Hit
12 vs 3	37.4% / 62.6%	−25.2	35.9% / 4.8% / 59.3%	−23.4	Hit
12 vs 4	39.4% / 60.6%	−21.1	37.0% / 4.7% / 58.3%	−21.4	Almost the same (stand is slightly better)
13 vs 2	35.4% / 64.6%	−29.3	32.1% / 5.0% / 62.9%	−30.8	Stand
13 vs 3	37.4% / 62.6%	−25.2	33.0% / 4.8% / 62.2%	−29.1	Stand
16 vs 7	26.2% / 73.8%	−47.5	26.4% / 5.7% / 67.9%	−41.5	Hit
16 vs 10	23.0% / 77.0%	−54.0	20.0% / 5.9% / 74.0%	−54.0	Almost the same (−50 if you surrender)

Totals 12 to 16: expected value of standing and hitting (per 100 units bet; the top row is the dealer's face-up card)

Your hand	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	A
12: Stand	−29	−25	−21◎	−17◎	−15◎	−48	−51	−54	−54	−67
12: Hit	−25◎	−23◎	−21	−19	−17	−21◎	−27◎	−34◎	−38◎	−35◎
13: Stand	−29◎	−25◎	−21◎	−17◎	−15◎	−48	−51	−54	−54	−67
13: Hit	−31	−29	−27	−26	−24	−27◎	−32◎	−39◎	−42◎	−40◎
14: Stand	−29◎	−25◎	−21◎	−17◎	−15◎	−48	−51	−54	−54	−67
14: Hit	−36	−35	−34	−32	−30	−32◎	−37◎	−43◎	−47◎	−44◎
15: Stand	−29◎	−25◎	−21◎	−17◎	−15◎	−48	−51	−54	−54	−67
15: Hit	−42	−41	−40	−38	−37	−37◎	−42◎	−47◎	−50◎	−48◎
16: Stand	−29◎	−25◎	−21◎	−17◎	−15◎	−48	−51	−54	−54	−67
16: Hit	−47	−46	−46	−45	−43	−42◎	−46◎	−51◎	−54	−52◎

◎ = the option with the higher expected value (both are negative; this is the one that loses less). With 16 vs 9, 10 or A, surrendering (−50) is even better.

In tricky situations, comparing only "how often you win" can lead to the wrong decision. That is because hitting increases the share of hands that end in a push and lowers the share of hands you lose. What you should compare is the expected value, which combines wins, pushes and losses. The expected value is negative in every situation; the strategy chart is only for choosing "the option that loses less."

How often the dealer busts

We calculated how often the dealer goes over 21 (busts) for each dealer face-up card. The chart says to stand more often against 2 to 6 because the dealer busts more easily then.

Probability of the dealer's final total (by face-up card)

Face-up card	17	18	19	20	21	Bust
2	14.0%	13.5%	13.0%	12.4%	11.8%	35.4%
3	13.5%	13.0%	12.6%	12.0%	11.5%	37.4%
4	13.0%	12.6%	12.1%	11.6%	11.1%	39.4%
5	12.2%	12.2%	11.8%	11.3%	10.8%	41.6%
6	16.5%	10.6%	10.6%	10.2%	9.7%	42.3%
7	36.9%	13.8%	7.9%	7.9%	7.4%	26.2%
8	12.9%	35.9%	12.9%	6.9%	6.9%	24.5%
9	12.0%	12.0%	35.1%	12.0%	6.1%	22.8%
10	12.1%	12.1%	12.1%	37.1%	3.7%	23.0%
A	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	7.8%	16.7%

For 10 and A, the figures assume the dealer does not have a blackjack.

How often the dealer busts (by face-up card). High for 2 to 6, low for 7 or higher and for A / Calculated by the CASINO PASSPORT editorial team (October 2026)

Fun probabilities worth knowing

Fun blackjack probabilities

Item	Probability / figure	Explanation
Your first two cards are a blackjack	approx. 4.7%	4.75% when calculated with 8 decks (about 1 in 21)
The dealer's hidden card under an A is a 10, J, Q or K	approx. 31%	The probability that the dealer has a blackjack when the face-up card is an A
Insurance	Loses approx. 7.5% on average	Pays 2 to 1. Even money when you have a blackjack works out the same
Pair bet (11 to 1)	Probability of winning approx. 7.5%	Calculated with 8 decks. A bet that loses about 10.4% on average

Side bet figures are covered in Side bets explained, and a comparison across games is in the house edge table.

Summary

Even if you follow the strategy chart, on average you lose about 0.5% of the amount you bet. The chart is a guide for choosing "the option that loses less" in tricky situations. Decide in advance how much you will spend (how to plan your budget for a Korean casino), and enjoy yourself within that limit. The 8 casinos covered on this site are for foreign visitors only (Korean nationals are not admitted) and are open to visitors aged 19 and over.

How we calculated: using an approximation that treats the deck as never running out of cards, we calculated the probabilities of the dealer's final total and the expected value of the player's hit, stand, double down, split and surrender in every situation (CASINO PASSPORT editorial team, October 2026).

CASINO PASSPORT editorial team

The CASINO PASSPORT editorial team presents travel information that includes legal, real-world casinos abroad, explained clearly for travelers from Japan. We check facility information against official websites, operating companies and public tourism information, and update it with a focus on accuracy and freshness. We do not introduce or recommend online casinos.

Article images are illustrations, not photos of actual facilities.

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